FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Firefly Aerospace Inc.FLY

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
20.76USD
+36.80%
Nov 08, 2026
FLY overview ready
Responsive launch and space transportation provider for U.S. National security
Firefly is a direct space-transportation provider: its operational Alpha vehicle addresses responsive small-launch missions, while its developing Eclipse vehicle expands toward medium lift; Blue Ghost lunar delivery and Elytra spacecraft platforms extend its role from launch into mission delivery and in-space operations.
Primary theme is lagging
Space is lagging (-13.9pp vs SPY over 21 sessions; 2 of 11 members ahead of SPY).
Price trend is broken
Longer-term context reads new trend, with a near-term setup of base repair.
The tactical setup reads base repair, but the weekly structure is broken.
Fair valuation
The price broadly reflects the cash the business actually produces, with upside and risk reasonably balanced.
Unremarkable fundamentals
Primary risk
Dependence on government and defense contracts.
Market Nov 6Filing Jun 30Price action Nov 7Research Sep 1

Conviction Level

PriceAction4.9BusinessPerformance—BusinessQuality—Valuation4.1ThemeMomentum1.0A revenue trend needs at least three unbroken comparable quarters, so none is read here.

Conviction uses Price Action, Business Performance, Business Quality, Valuation. Theme Momentum is research context, not an input.

Theme momentumPrimary theme · group context, not entry timing
SpaceLagging
vs SPY
−13.9pp
Theme return
−18.9%
Beating SPY
2 of 11
21 sessions to Nov 6, 2026 · Theme Leadership V2
Price
Loading price history…

Price Action

Price trend is broken
Longer-term context reads new trend, with a near-term setup of base repair.
The tactical setup reads base repair, but the weekly structure is broken.
EntryReset + recovery

The recent reset toward the daily SMA200. Daily structure is recovering above the fast averages, improving the current entry location.

Key Financials

Market Cap
$3.5B
Avg Volume (60D)
3.4M
60 sessions
Revenue Growth YoY
+163.0%
FY2025 vs FY2024
Gross Margin
+22.9%
Trailing twelve months
Operating Margin
-118.0%
Trailing twelve months
Free Cash Flow Yield
-9.4%
Distance from 200DMA
-22.7%
Next Earnings
2026-11-10
P/E
N/M
EV / Sales
9.9x
Market metrics as of Nov 6, 2026
Financial results for the period ended Jun 30, 2026
Filed balance-sheet data as of Jun 30, 2026

Business Performance

Insufficient evidence

A revenue trend needs at least three unbroken comparable quarters, so none is read here.

Latest reported: Q2 FY2026, ended Jun 30
Revenue growthNot enough data
+657%
$118M in Q2 FY2026 · YoY
YoY growth, last 4 quarters
  1. +38%
  2. n/a
  3. +45%
  4. +657%
Earnings growthLoss widening
-$92.3M
Net income -$92.3M. Per-share figures are not comparable across a large share-count change.
Too few comparable EPS quarters: a loss or a turn to profit has no meaningful percentage.
Operating marginExpanding
-80.9%
+268.6 pp YoY · gross margin 20.3% (-5.4 pp)

Business Quality

Not assessed

Not assessed yet — the business is too early-stage for its economics to show in filings.

Fundamentals & Valuation

The available comparisons disagreed; the peers comparison is the more reliable method for this business and the others are published as dissent.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. has a Fair valuation stance because the price broadly reflects the cash the business actually produces, with upside and risk reasonably balanced.

What changed

  • FLY rose 36.8% in one session
    FLY closed +36.8% while the broad market was close to flat (+0.3%).
    2026-11-06

Company Research

Thesis
Firefly is a direct space-transportation provider: its operational Alpha vehicle addresses responsive small-launch missions, while its developing Eclipse vehicle expands toward medium lift; Blue Ghost lunar delivery and Elytra spacecraft platforms extend its role from launch into mission delivery and in-space operations.
Opportunity
High opportunity
Defense and civil-space demand for assured, tactically responsive access to orbit and related space transportation services, including dedicated launch capacity and mission-flexible spacecraft transport.
Key risk
Dependence on government and defense contracts.

Economic classification

Loading the economic classification…

Business & Markets

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
What they do

Firefly Aerospace Inc. develops and operates launch vehicles and spacecraft platforms to provide space transportation and mission delivery services primarily in the United States. It integrates launch, transit, and in-space operations technologies to serve national security, government, and commercial customers.

How it earns

The company generates revenue primarily through project-based contracts for launch services and spacecraft mission solutions.

Products & services
Alpha responsive small-launch vehicle
Eclipse medium-lift launch vehicle
Blue Ghost lunar delivery and operation service
Elytra spacecraft platform
Customers & end markets
National security agencies
Government space programs
Commercial space customers
Market position

Niche player focused on responsive small- and medium-lift launch and mission delivery within the U.S. Space and defense sector.

Demand drivers
High cyclicality

Business depends on government and defense budgets and the timing of space mission contracts, which can be irregular.

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