BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.BBAI

Technology · Information Technology Services
2.22USD
+0.00%
Nov 08, 2026
BBAI overview ready
Defense AI Decision Intelligence Software Provider for National Security
BigBear.ai is a specialized defense and security AI software provider, delivering edge AI, predictive analytics, computer vision, biometrics, modeling and simulation, data integration, and generative-AI capabilities to national-security, border, travel, and trade customers.
Theme not measured
Enterprise AI Platforms has no leadership state this session.
Price trend is broken
Longer-term context reads damaged structure, with a near-term setup of distribution pressure.
The tactical setup reads distribution pressure, but the weekly structure is broken.
Demanding valuation
The price embeds expectations that run ahead of the cash the business currently produces.
Unremarkable fundamentals
Primary risk
Dependence on government defense spending and contract renewals.
Market Nov 6Filing Sep 30Price action Nov 7Research Aug 30

Conviction Level

Theme Momentum has no canonical measurement for this company — a research-profile dimension, not an input to this score.

PriceAction1.4BusinessPerformance5.0BusinessQuality—Valuation2.8ThemeMomentum—Mixed — Revenue growth has accelerated across 4 consecutive quarters, rising from -38% to +32% year over year. No comparable quarterly EPS is available; net income turned negative at -$91.9M from $2.5M. — From filed financial statements. Describes the recent trajectory of the business, not the stock. 20 of the 100 Conviction points.

Conviction uses Price Action, Business Performance, Business Quality, Valuation. Theme Momentum is research context, not an input.

Theme momentumPrimary theme · group context, not entry timing
Enterprise AI Platforms — Enterprise AI Platforms is tracked (3–4 priced members) — too few for a leadership state
Its economic family, Software, reads Weakening (+6.0pp vs SPY) — the family’s reading, not this theme’s.
Price
Loading price history…

Price Action

Price trend is broken
Longer-term context reads damaged structure, with a near-term setup of distribution pressure.
The tactical setup reads distribution pressure, but the weekly structure is broken.
EntryDamaged / breakdown

The technical structure itself is broken across timeframes — the weakest entry profile.

Key Financials

Market Cap
$1.1B
Avg Volume (60D)
18.1M
60 sessions
Revenue Growth YoY
-19.3%
FY2025 vs FY2024
Gross Margin
+30.2%
Trailing twelve months
Operating Margin
-164.2%
Trailing twelve months
Free Cash Flow Yield
-6.8%
Distance from 200DMA
-36.9%
P/E
N/M
EV / Sales
5.6x
Market metrics as of Nov 6, 2026
Financial results for the period ended Sep 30, 2026
Filed balance-sheet data as of Sep 30, 2026

Business Performance

Mixed

Revenue growth has accelerated across 4 consecutive quarters, rising from -38% to +32% year over year. No comparable quarterly EPS is available; net income turned negative at -$91.9M from $2.5M.

Latest reported: Q3 FY2026, ended Sep 30
Revenue growthAccelerating
+32%
$43.6M in Q3 FY2026 · YoY
YoY growth, last 4 quarters
  1. -38%
  2. -0.9%
  3. +13%
  4. +32%
Earnings growthTurned to a loss
-$91.9M
Net income -$91.9M. No comparable quarterly EPS is available.
Too few comparable EPS quarters: a loss or a turn to profit has no meaningful percentage.
Operating marginContracting
-229.4%
-163.4 pp YoY · gross margin 31.2% (+8.8 pp)
The business is consuming cash
The share count is rising

Business Quality

Not assessed

Not assessed yet — the business is too early-stage for its economics to show in filings.

Fundamentals & Valuation

Two of the three valuation perspectives say expensive; own history is the dissenting view.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has an Expensive valuation stance because the price embeds expectations that run ahead of the cash the business currently produces.

Company Research

Thesis
BigBear.ai is a specialized defense and security AI software provider, delivering edge AI, predictive analytics, computer vision, biometrics, modeling and simulation, data integration, and generative-AI capabilities to national-security, border, travel, and trade customers.
Opportunity
Moderate opportunity
Defense and intelligence procurement of secure AI, data fusion, computer vision, simulation, and decision-support software that turns distributed operational data into mission planning, command-and-control, and security workflows.
Key risk
Dependence on government defense spending and contract renewals.

Economic classification

Loading the economic classification…

Business & Markets

Technology · Information Technology Services
What they do

BigBear.ai provides AI-powered decision intelligence software that integrates data fusion, predictive analytics, and simulation to support national security, supply chain, and digital identity operations.

How it earns

The company generates revenue primarily through subscription and project-based contracts with government and commercial customers.

Products & services
Data Conflation at Scale
Discrete Event Simulation
Next-Gen Decision Support
Customers & end markets
National security agencies
Defense and intelligence customers
Supply chain and logistics operators
Border, travel, and trade sectors
Market position

Niche specialized provider of defense and security AI software with advanced data fusion and simulation capabilities.

Demand drivers
Medium cyclicality

Business depends on government defense budgets and commercial supply chain demand, which can fluctuate with economic and geopolitical conditions.