AAON
AAON, Inc.

AAON, Inc.AAON

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
57.19USD
+5.09%
Nov 08, 2026
AAON overview ready
Supplier of custom HVAC and liquid-cooling systems for AI data centers
AAON is a direct physical-infrastructure supplier to data-center projects through BASX custom air-handling, liquid-cooling, coolant-distribution, heat-rejection, and related mission-critical HVAC systems; its legacy AAON-branded commercial HVAC business provides additional but less thematic exposure.
Primary theme is lagging
AI Infrastructure is lagging (-29.6pp vs SPY over 21 sessions; 0 of 16 members ahead of SPY).
Price trend is broken
Longer-term context reads damaged structure, with a near-term setup of distribution pressure.
The tactical setup reads distribution pressure, but the weekly structure is broken.
Demanding valuation
The price embeds expectations that run ahead of the cash the business currently produces.
Low free cash flow yield
Free cash flow yield is weak.
Primary risk
Exposure to cyclical commercial construction and data center capital spending.
Market Nov 6Filing Jun 30Price action Nov 7Research Sep 28

Conviction Level

PriceAction1.4BusinessPerformance7.0BusinessQuality6.9Valuation3.4ThemeMomentum1.0Improving — Revenue growth has accelerated across 4 consecutive quarters, rising from +17% to +101% year over year. Diluted EPS growth has strengthened to +258% year over year ($0.68), up from -41%. That earnings comparison is against a weak year-ago quarter. — From filed financial statements. Describes the recent trajectory of the business, not the stock. 20 of the 100 Conviction points.

Conviction uses Price Action, Business Performance, Business Quality, Valuation. Theme Momentum is research context, not an input.

Theme momentumPrimary theme · group context, not entry timing
vs SPY
−29.6pp
Theme return
−34.5%
Beating SPY
0 of 16
21 sessions to Nov 6, 2026 · Theme Leadership V2
Price
Loading price history…

Price Action

Price trend is broken
Longer-term context reads damaged structure, with a near-term setup of distribution pressure.
The tactical setup reads distribution pressure, but the weekly structure is broken.
EntryDamaged / breakdown

The technical structure itself is broken across timeframes — the weakest entry profile.

Key Financials

Market Cap
$4.7B
Avg Volume (60D)
1.2M
60 sessions
Revenue Growth YoY
+20.1%
FY2025 vs FY2024
Gross Margin
+25.6%
Trailing twelve months
Operating Margin
+11.0%
Trailing twelve months
Free Cash Flow Yield
-2.5%
Distance from 200DMA
-40.9%
Next Earnings
2026-11-09
P/E
29.6x
EV / EBITDA
17.3x
EV / Sales
2.7x
Market metrics as of Nov 6, 2026
Financial results for the period ended Jun 30, 2026
Filed balance-sheet data as of Jun 30, 2026

Business Performance

Improving

Revenue growth has accelerated across 4 consecutive quarters, rising from +17% to +101% year over year. Diluted EPS growth has strengthened to +258% year over year ($0.68), up from -41%. That earnings comparison is against a weak year-ago quarter.

Latest reported: Q2 FY2026, ended Jun 30
Revenue growthAccelerating
+101%
$627M in Q2 FY2026 · YoY
YoY growth, last 4 quarters
  1. +17%
  2. +43%
  3. +54%
  4. +101%
Earnings growthAccelerating
+258%
Diluted EPS $0.68 vs $0.19 a year earlier · GAAP
Diluted EPS YoY (GAAP), last 4 quarters
  1. -41%
  2. +30%
  3. +37%
  4. +258%
Operating marginExpanding
11.0%
+3.4 pp YoY · gross margin 24.3% (-2.2 pp)
The comparison is against a weak year-ago quarter
Profit is not fully converting to cash

Business Quality

6.9 / 10

How well the business earns on its assets, converts earnings to cash and funds itself — read from its SEC filings.

Fundamentals & Valuation

The available comparisons disagreed; the peers comparison is the more reliable method for this business and the others are published as dissent.
AAON, Inc. has an Expensive valuation stance because the price embeds expectations that run ahead of the cash the business currently produces. It trades at 17.3x EBITDA and 2.7x revenue, which require sustained delivery to be justified.

What changed

Company Research

Thesis
AAON is a direct physical-infrastructure supplier to data-center projects through BASX custom air-handling, liquid-cooling, coolant-distribution, heat-rejection, and related mission-critical HVAC systems; its legacy AAON-branded commercial HVAC business provides additional but less thematic exposure.
Opportunity
High opportunity
Hyperscaler and colocation capital spending on high-density AI data-center electrical and liquid-cooling infrastructure.
Key risk
Exposure to cyclical commercial construction and data center capital spending.

Economic classification

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Business & Markets

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
What they do

AAON, Inc. engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment primarily in the United States and Canada through its three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX.

How it earns

The company generates revenue through transactional sales of HVAC and related equipment to commercial and industrial customers.

Products & services
Rooftop units
Data center cooling solutions
Cleanroom systems
Packaged outdoor mechanical rooms
Air handling units
Makeup air units
Energy recovery units
Condensing units
Geothermal/water-source heat pumps
Coils
Controls
Customers & end markets
Retail
Manufacturing
Educational institutions
Lodging
Data centers
Market position

Niche supplier with specialized HVAC solutions for commercial and data center markets.

Demand drivers
Medium cyclicality

Demand is influenced by commercial construction cycles and data center capital expenditures, which can be variable.

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